Wednesday, 10 February 2010 14:14

Effective Estimating and the Courage to Push Back

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When it comes to setting the expectations that are the foundation for project success the courage to push back against unrealistic demands from sponsors, senior managers and clients is a critical factor.  In an earlier blog entry, I discussed the importance of setting realistic expectations and how that relates to the fact that we will probably never be 100% accurate when making estimates early in project life. 

Courage is the quality of mind that enables a person to act effectively when confronted with difficulty, danger, pain, etc., even in the face of fear.  It is the ability to act in accordance with one's beliefs in spite of criticism or fear of consequences.  Why would a project manager or project performer need courage?  It is because we are often faced with some difficult choices, particularly when it comes to estimating and scheduling.  Choices like telling a client that his or her desire for a delivery by a critical date is a pipe dream or informing a senior manager who has just told his boss's boss that a project will be performed for some ridiculously low cost and within a time frame that is virtually impossible without the use of magic.

So how do we manage to muster the courage we need under such circumstances?  First we begin by understanding that the more we rely on effective estimating and presentation skills the less courage we need.  Our estimating skills enable us to build an objective foundation for our estimate.  We use objectivity to overcome irrationality.  These estimating skills include the use of scenarios based on well founded assumptions, accurate scope definitions, the use of past performance data, effective task analysis and realistic assessments of resource availability and capability.

Effective presentation skills are needed because objective reality is not enough by itself.  While we would like to think that the people we deal with are rational beings who simply need the facts to make good decisions, there is much evidence to the contrary.  When people are driven by the desire for something they really want, their brains become clouded.  They discount even the most irrefutable facts and believe what is most convenient to believe in the moment as opposed to what is more likely to be the case in the future.  In other words people are easily deluded.

Effective presentation skills not only present an objective argument but do it in a way that engages the participants and gets them to confront their own thinking in light of the facts.  We present the facts and assumptions and ask for feedback.  We say things like "While I would love to tell you we can deliver by next Tuesday, the estimates say that we probably won't be able to.  Please let me walk you through the estimate and let's see what we can do."  When the client says things like "well if you can't do it we can get someone who can."  We need to respond with "You may be able to get someone who says they can do it but that's different than actually doing it.  If you spend a few minutes with me now to look at the reasoning behind our estimates you may very well avoid some serious disappointment later."

If you get their attention, then present a brief argument that focuses on what they can understand.  Summarize.  Be ready to go to different levels of detail as needed.  Ask questions like, "Have I left anything out or made any erroneous assumptions?"

Courage is not about not being afraid.  It is about working through the fear to remain calm enough to think and communicate clearly and effectively.  With courage we can push back and protect our clients, sponsors, teams and ourselves from the consequences of beginning a project with unrealistic expectations.

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Read 5175 times Last modified on Wednesday, 10 March 2010 10:00
George Pitagorsky

George Pitagorsky, PMP, integrates core disciplines and applies people centric systems and process thinking to achieve sustainable optimal performance. George authored The Zen Approach to Project Management and PM BasicsTM. He teaches meditation and is on the Board of Directors of the NY Insight Meditation Center.

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0 # NIraj Kapadia 2010-02-10 09:28
George, thank you for an effective blog on the direct gather effort. This courage is often overlooked and reduces rework. Going across levels, requires real courage in developing accurate requirements. Estimate gathering is relatively painless, but when the requirement exceeds expectation from cost or time it is the cross collaboration, the cross negotiation, and the reverification that requires as a best practice a firm posture. Not a posture of authority, but one for clarity and precision. The one to say no I do not understand so lets restate, helps establish the cost, the work and the essential time and materials. In either case when you receive the push back from any and every level, whether sponsor or user. You must elicit the rationale and the substance for a requirement for the user and from the vendor or internal resource on the estimate. It might be simple, but the presentation technique has to cut through the communication mismatches of the audience. When you are clear and tailor your message to the desire of the client in terms and significance, effective solutions are a higher result.
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0 # George Pitagorsky 2010-02-12 03:16
Thanks for your comment
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0 # Robin Goldsmith 2010-02-13 21:19
Too often people have plenty of courage to push back in kneejerk fashion which is equally automatically but nonetheless rightly disregarded as mindless negativism. Before one can be listened to, one first must be believed. Predictable whining, albeit couched in professionalism , that estimates are "impossible" irrespective of the fact situation does not lead to believability. Rather than merely having the "courage" to push back, to be believed, one must: 1. Have a way to achieve the desired end result. 2. Have a factual description of what it will take, which is not the same as saying it can necessarily be accomplished in the desired time/budget. The business/sponso r can make a rational decision about how much they are willing to pay for only when that decision is based on getting to the desired result. 3. Demonstrate commitment to delivering the results--"I will make it happen." This emotional element is essential for making the intellectual estimate element believable.
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0 # George Pitagorsky 2010-02-15 03:26
I agree that courage alone is not sufficient. Complaining (see my January newsletter at www.Pitagorskyconsulting.com for an article on that subject) and whining is not what I am talking about. Objectivity, supported by a well developed estimate based on past experience is what is needed to push back effectively. This is in line with your second point. However, there are many people who, even with a good reason for it, will not push back. Whether there is a way to achieve the desired result (point 1) depends on the situation. If one does not have a way, it is best acknowledged so that, if a way is possible, one can be found. Regardi ng point 3 - while commitment to deliver is very important, and the emotional element does help the argument, beware of the tendency to try to "make it happen" only to over commit yourself and your resources and end up late, over budget and/or delivering a shoddy product. It is best to be realistic and committed to delivering what can be delivered in time frames cost constraints that enable sustainably high quality work.
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0 # Robin Goldsmith 2010-02-20 02:00
Too many push backs are merely negative reactions without having any positive response to offer. Contrary to popular perception, concentrating on all the reasons something can’t be done, which is what most pushback is, is unlikely to reveal a way that it can be done. In effect, typical pushback is part of a self-fulfilling prophecy that others sense and the backpusher doesn’t—“it’s going to fail and I’ll prove it.” In order for one’s mind in fact to be open to ways to succeed, one has to start from the sincere belief that “it can be done and I’ll make it happen.” That belief needs to be based on more than mere wishes and is much different from merely mouthing what you think the boss wants to hear while saying to yourself that “of course you must realize it can’t actually be done.” These are difficult concepts to accept, especially by experienced project managers who indeed do push back and then are surprised when they (1) aren’t listened to and (2) are further frustrated when again their extra efforts delivering a project that’s late, over-budget, and wrong aren’t appreciated. These concepts repeatedly have been proven in a wide variety of peak performance situations.
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0 # George Pitagorsky 2010-02-20 04:29
Yes, I think there are many push backs that are not well thought out and that do not offer positive ways to accomplish project objectives. As I say in the original post, "We use objectivity to overcome irrationality." That means that, as you say, "beliefs must be based on more than mere wishful thinking." We need to use effective estimating and scheduling techniques that take into consideration the realities of resource availability and risk to get a real understanding of what can be done with what probability of success. Then we have confidence that "it can be done." with that confidence we can get it done. We don't want to perpetuate the heroics based performance that abounds in many environments and at the same time we want to push the edge and operate at sustainable peak performance.
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