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Author: George Pitagorsky

George Pitagorsky, integrates core disciplines and applies people centric systems and process thinking to achieve sustainable optimal performance. He is a coach, teacher and consultant. George authored The Zen Approach to Project Management, Managing Conflict and Managing Expectations and IIL’s PM Fundamentals™. He taught meditation at NY Insight Meditation Center for twenty-plus years and created the Conscious Living/Conscious Working and Wisdom in Relationships courses. Until recently, he worked as a CIO at the NYC Department of Education.

Risk and Uncertainty – Managing Expectations

As stated in last month’s entry “A key assumption supporting healthy expectations is that there is uncertainty and that the more complex and hostile the working environment is, the greater the uncertainty.”

Attitudes regarding risk and uncertainty are central to establishing healthy expectations.  While it seems quite obvious from personal experience and history that uncertainty is the only certainty.  Anything can happen.  That is why project management 101 teaches that risk management must be an integral part of project planning and control for the project to be performed effectively.

The central activities of risk management are identification, assessment and response planning.  These must be integral parts of the estimating process.  When they are done well, stakeholders will have realistic expectations because estimates and the assumptions underlying them will be communicated so as to leave no room for delusional thinking.  Further, risk management enables the plan to be optimized.

What is delusional thinking?  It is thinking that in a complex project a single point estimate is guaranteed to be realized.  Delusional thinking is thinking that there will not be any changes, that everything will be thought out with 100% accuracy and that everything will go as planned.  Risk management dispels delusional thinking because it explicitly states the nature of the risks that might befall the project in terms of their probability of occurrence and their potential impact on the project’s performance and outcome.

Response planning takes it a step further.  It attempts to squeeze out risk and uncertainty by identifying avoidance and transfer options, to minimize the residual risk and to establish reserves or buffers that enable development of a range of possible outcomes. 

Engaging the Stakeholders

Every project manager with any sense understands the need for and principles of risk management.  The challenge is to engage project performers, clients and sponsors so that they understand, take part in and even insist upon an effective risk management process. 

For performers who provide estimates of their work, the PM should make it clear that a multipoint estimate with assumptions for most likely, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios is necessary.  For performers who are given estimates, there must be an opportunity to assess assumptions and risks and accept their assignment, rather than being forced to work under irrational assumptions.

For clients, they must be drawn into the risk management process so they can help to identify risks from their perspective and understand the degree of uncertainty that exists in the project.

Sponsors must be exposed to clear statements of risk and uncertainty, in the form of range estimates and statements of assumptions, even when they are trying to force project managers to commit to unrealistic estimates and schedules.

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Mindfully Managing Expectations

Last month I wrote about the place for pushback in managing expectations in projects.  As comments pointed out, it is not just push back that is needed.  Push back is one factor among many.  When we do find the need to push back it must be done consciously as a part of the overall process of managing expectations and within the context of meeting project objectives in the most effective way. 

Clearly, the expectations of stakeholders, both those with power and those without, have a significant effect on project success and the degree to which the project is faced with unnecessary conflict and performance shortfalls.  Sponsor and client expectations of delivery of something on some date within some budget must be informed by their awareness of project risks and complexities.  Where expectations do not consider risk and change, there is a pressure that is created to do the “impossible” or suffer the consequences.

This pressure can be quite powerful as a motivator but too much of it or the wrong kind will have negative effects.  What is the right balance?  When does pushing the edge or stretching to optimize performance become a dysfunctional charge into trying to do too much too quickly and for a bargain cost?

How Do We Manage Expectations? 

The first step is to take a step back from ourselves and assess stakeholders’ perceptions, needs, desires and mental models.  In a project everyone has expectations. 

Expectations drive performance; committed people work to meet their own expectations and the expectations of others.  If the expectations are “stretch” then performance may tighten up and extra effort will be applied to hit targets.  Lessons learned will enable future projects to be more optimally performed.

In the body, if the stretch is too much a muscle gets pulled.  Personal performance degrades, at least until the muscle heals.  If there is not enough stretch there is tightness, rigidity, slowness, increased danger of pulling muscles and reduced capacity to stretch.

Projects are like bodies in this way.  Too much stretch and there is dysfunction – burn-out, taking unwise shortcuts, lost opportunities and in many cases unmet expectations.  Too little stretch and project targets may be met but costs and performance efficiencies across multiple projects will suffer as will the ability to hit performance peaks when needed.

Expectations are Thoughts

They represent what we want to have happen and think can or will happen?  Underlying expectations are assumptions regarding how the project will play out to deliver the desired outcome.   A key assumption supporting healthy expectations is that there is uncertainty and that the more complex and hostile the working environment is, the greater the uncertainty. 

To manage expectations, we facilitate so that everyone is aware of and tests the validity of their expectations.  Then we can work to get a mutual agreement regarding objectives, product scope and the work itself.  Work is realistically scheduled; costs are estimated; risks, the inevitability of change, environmental and resource constraints are understood; project performance and management processes are defined; roles and responsibilities are understood and used as a basis for accountability. 

These are the major factors that, when brought together, establish stakeholder expectations.   Expectations drive performance and establish the benchmark for project success.  Make sure they are rational:  What is the likelihood of their being met, given expected resources and conditions?

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Effective Estimating and the Courage to Push Back

When it comes to setting the expectations that are the foundation for project success the courage to push back against unrealistic demands from sponsors, senior managers and clients is a critical factor.  In an earlier blog entry, I discussed the importance of setting realistic expectations and how that relates to the fact that we will probably never be 100% accurate when making estimates early in project life. 

Courage is the quality of mind that enables a person to act effectively when confronted with difficulty, danger, pain, etc., even in the face of fear.  It is the ability to act in accordance with one’s beliefs in spite of criticism or fear of consequences.  Why would a project manager or project performer need courage?  It is because we are often faced with some difficult choices, particularly when it comes to estimating and scheduling.  Choices like telling a client that his or her desire for a delivery by a critical date is a pipe dream or informing a senior manager who has just told his boss’s boss that a project will be performed for some ridiculously low cost and within a time frame that is virtually impossible without the use of magic.

So how do we manage to muster the courage we need under such circumstances?  First we begin by understanding that the more we rely on effective estimating and presentation skills the less courage we need.  Our estimating skills enable us to build an objective foundation for our estimate.  We use objectivity to overcome irrationality.  These estimating skills include the use of scenarios based on well founded assumptions, accurate scope definitions, the use of past performance data, effective task analysis and realistic assessments of resource availability and capability.

Effective presentation skills are needed because objective reality is not enough by itself.  While we would like to think that the people we deal with are rational beings who simply need the facts to make good decisions, there is much evidence to the contrary.  When people are driven by the desire for something they really want, their brains become clouded.  They discount even the most irrefutable facts and believe what is most convenient to believe in the moment as opposed to what is more likely to be the case in the future.  In other words people are easily deluded.

Effective presentation skills not only present an objective argument but do it in a way that engages the participants and gets them to confront their own thinking in light of the facts.  We present the facts and assumptions and ask for feedback.  We say things like “While I would love to tell you we can deliver by next Tuesday, the estimates say that we probably won’t be able to.  Please let me walk you through the estimate and let’s see what we can do.”  When the client says things like “well if you can’t do it we can get someone who can.”  We need to respond with “You may be able to get someone who says they can do it but that’s different than actually doing it.  If you spend a few minutes with me now to look at the reasoning behind our estimates you may very well avoid some serious disappointment later.”

If you get their attention, then present a brief argument that focuses on what they can understand.  Summarize.  Be ready to go to different levels of detail as needed.  Ask questions like, “Have I left anything out or made any erroneous assumptions?”

Courage is not about not being afraid.  It is about working through the fear to remain calm enough to think and communicate clearly and effectively.  With courage we can push back and protect our clients, sponsors, teams and ourselves from the consequences of beginning a project with unrealistic expectations.

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Motivating Knowledge Sharing

Do project performers and managers withhold knowledge and inhibit learning from experience?

I recently led a project management course for experienced managers in a large global technical services firm.

As we discussed lessons learned and knowledge management, the group raised the issue that many people do not share their knowledge because they fear that if they do they will lose their value to the company and possibly their jobs. The logic was that their knowledge is what makes them valuable.

My response was that withholding knowledge or not won’t matter. Based on collective experience in that firm and in many others, there was little correlation between the knowledge a person held and their being laid off. Lay-offs are mostly driven by the desire to reduce costs and in many, if not most organizations, a common attitude of decision makers is that the survivors will “make do.”  They’ll work harder and learn what they need to learn. There are even instances in outsourcing situations of organizations saving money by laying-off knowledge holders before their knowledge has been adequately passed on. 

In more enlightened organizations there is long term succession planning and systematic knowledge management. There is also a valuing of something beyond the annual cost of an employee or the short term savings of premature termination.

But how to motivate sharing? 

Not sharing is probably not going to preserve jobs and may even be seen as negative behavior when it comes to performance reviews.

How do we promote sharing?  First we must acknowledge that knowledge is power. It is a valuable commodity that represents an asset in and of itself.  Knowledge is one factor in the value of an employee, others include flexibility, the ability to learn and adapt to changing circumstances, the ability to communicate and collaborate, among others.  In fact, it can be said that the ability and willingness to share knowledge is a valuable asset in an individual.  It is through knowledge sharing that one’s knowledge can be validated and made useful across an organization.

Knowledge management experts recommend making knowledge sharing an integral part of every job description and of every business process.  In this way it becomes standard operating procedure. It is a job requirement as opposed to something voluntary and discretionary. As an example, coaching and mentoring can be made part of the job description of a manager or senior technical person.

In the project management realm, making project reviews with lessons learned identification and documentation part of the work plan and not an afterthought is another way to promote sharing.  It is hard enough to get people to take part in candid lessons learned and performance reviews without making it an extra that is viewed as non-billable or non-productive time.

In addition, reward and recognition helps to motivate both knowledge sharing and the use of shared knowledge. Collecting KM system usage data (knowledge contribution and access) and reporting it as part of a recognition process is effective. Publishing lessons learned and attributing them to teams and individuals helps as well. Of course there are some lessons learned that are based on negative experiences.  Let’s acknowledge that everyone makes mistakes and that those who can own up to them, changer behavior and share their experience should be rewarded.

Add to that controlled social computing and other forums to enable communities of practice and common interest to share.

Overall, it is desirable to cultivate an attitude that views knowledge sharing as a service to one’s organization and peers.  The motivation to be of service by passing on one’s knowledge and, perhaps, wisdom makes other motivators unnecessary.

Accountability and Performance

A recent experience with my local phone company and some discussions in a recent project management class I led brought up the importance of accountability as a motivator, and the difficulty of really making it work in a large organization.

The phone company event had me waiting for five hours for an installer who never came and never bothered to call to say he wasn’t coming. When I called around 4:30 PM to see what was happening to my 12 – 4 window appointment they said we’d have to reschedule. No apology, no explanation. Then, to make matters worse, the central office did something that made it impossible for me to check my messages. This time an apology and another appointment but no one to hold accountable. No attempt at a lessons learned process. No one seemed to care that someone did something that caused client dissatisfaction and rework.

In my PM class, participants (all team leaders and project managers) identified lack of accountability as a chronic cause of performance shortfalls and conflicts. They said people make commitments and do not fulfill them. They make errors that cause rework and client dissatisfaction. No one is accountable. The same problems occur over and over again until they became the norm. Because PMs could not get candid progress reports from the functional groups and performers they relied upon, the PMs often failed to report progress accurately and found themselves blamed for late and over budget projects.

Accountability, Not Blaming

Accountability, according to the Business Dictionary is the “Obligation of an individual, firm, or institution to account for its activities, accept responsibility for them, and to disclose the results in a transparent manner.” Accountability is critical in project management. Without it projects cannot be effectively controlled and managed, nor can performance be improved. This is widely agreed upon and yet we find that there is little or no accountability in many organizations and their projects. Instead we see finger pointing, hiding and blaming, among other practices to avoid accountability.

A big part of the problem is the tendency to equate accountability with blame. Who wants to be accountable when owning up to a shortfall or defect or late delivery results in a tongue lashing or worse? So as Dr. Deming advised, banish blaming and focus instead on an attitude that is built on the idea that it is only by clearly acknowledging things as they are that we can make them better, or at least make the best of the current situation.

Promote Accountability

The effective project manager makes accountability an issue at the earliest possible time in the project’s life. It becomes a topic for discussion at kick-off and is built into the project’s communication and project control plan. Ideally, commitments are made and documented in the project plan. The control process requires that performers candidly and regularly report their effort and progress. Everyone understands and agrees that the project manager will make sure that progress results, issues, problems, etc. are regularly and candidly reported. Issues such as probable or actual late delivery are addressed by looking at their impact and cause and then taking appropriate action. Action in the short term attempts to mitigate negative effects within the project. In the long term, action seeks to eliminate the cause, through training, staff changes and/or process improvement across future projects.

People with a positive work ethic recognize the need for accountability and accept the fact that, even when they have to own up to errors and omissions they have made, both they and their teams and organizations will benefit. People with less positive work ethics, especially if they work in punitive, blaming organizations, must be made to understand that avoiding accountability by hiding the reality of their actions is completely unacceptable.